Interview with Prof. Harsh Pant on Afghanistan

Interview with Professor Harsh Pant, King’s College, London. Responded by him on Aug 3, 2015.

Question: How do you compare the situation that existed in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and the subsequent taking over of interim administration with that the one that exists now ie., after taking over of Ashraf Ghani as President of Afghanistan, especially in the context of India's engagement in Afghanistan and her (India) other dilemmas?

Prof. Pant: The immediate aftermath of 9/11 was very favorable to India, that's why India’s engagement reached new levels. Today, the situation is very different. The western forces are withdrawing and Pakistan and its proxies want to get back in control. India is being freezed out.

Question: After the aggregate investment of 2 Billion US dollars, why do you think India has not gone ahead with any big bang aid to Afghanistan ever since ?

Prof. Pant: Because the situation has been deteriorating to India's disadvantage. There is no point investing if India is unlikely to get any returns.

Question: Considering the fact that US is going to stay for some time to come in Afghanistan, is there any possibility that India would put boots on the ground in Afghanistan to secure its interests? Apparently with a tacit approval of US even if it is going to be at the displeasure of Pakistan?

Prof. Pant: None! There is no political appetite for it in Delhi. The Modi govt, on its own, would be willing to consider it but its political opponents would make it very difficult to support that. Unlike in other nations, in India even national security crises are used to scope petty political points.

Question: How do you think in your opinion, India's relations with Central Asian states and Iran has an effect (negative or positive) on India - Afghanistan relations?

Prof. Pant: Positive....the greater presence India has in Iran and central Asia, the greater its leverage will be in Afghanistan.....

Question: Is it correct to assume that India & Afghanistan in their mutual relations are making a considerable progress in de-hyphenating Pakistan, thereby making their bi-lateral relations truly independent of Pakistan in particular?

Prof. Pant: TO a certain extent, this is true....but Ghani is giving priority to sorting out internal turmoil and he seems to think that negotiating with the Taliban is the only way out....for that he needs Pakistani support....so Pakistan once again has an upper hand.....

Question: To how far this notion is true that the current Afghanistan administration is pro-Pakistan and Karzai administration was pro-India?

Prof. Pant: The current administration is not really pro-Pakistan but its assessment is that Pakistan is key to resolving the internal turmoil and so negotiations with Taliban can only proceed with Pakistani help.....Karzai administration too at times had a similar position but it was let down by Pakistan time and again and it used its ties with India as a leverage.....

Question: If Ghani administration is indeed pro-Pakistan in practice, should India worry ?

Prof. Pant: India should worry only if the Taliban get a predominant position in the political set up in Afghanistan.....with the death of mullah Omar and fracturing Taliban, it seems unlikely in the near term....