My Comment on "Can forecasting conflict help to make better foreign policy decisions? " in The Monkey Cage

My Comment on Can forecasting conflict help to make better foreign policy decisions? in The Monkey Cage

As a novice one thing that sounds appealing is inherent limitations in both the worlds are agreed by scholars in both the camps, if I may say. Jay sometime ago discussed about few limitations as a data guy in the context of excessive romanticism on "Big Data". But he actually explained the limitations of accurateness in the domain of social science[i]. A physics scientist doing an experiment in a lab has an opportunity to try with different variations of his newly formulated equation, finding, idea etc. But in the case of a Political scientist, outputs generated by statistical models at best can end up on the table of a policy decision maker or it could be useful for new paper editor.

The argument on false positive and false negatives is highly relevant. What if a false positive becomes a pre-cursor for Cold War -II or WW III. I am not sure if forecasted political events gain much of a fanfare beyond academic circles, or in other words policy decisions rarely taken based on forecasts. At the same time we cannot discount the fact that a decision taken based on a specific forecast will always add value and support to the argument made.

It is helpful to distinguish the Warfare forecasts and others, because there are chances of things going terribly wrong even if they are statistically correct. Observational studies comes in handy for many policy decision makers and they continue to remain as an important tool if not the only one for decision making, which is still better than taking decisions based on a gut feeling.

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[i] http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2013/05/14/im-down-with-complexity-and-all-but/

Making India a Dominated Nation : Macaulay's Way ?

I have always believed and read more than little too, that our cultural strength is not known to Indians in full unlike the citizens of other countries about their own culture and history. The last 1000 years have been so devastating to this powerful country - India that it could not make a come back and regain its glory. Since time immemorial we were considered as learned men on this planet. When the significant part of the world was still hunting animals and eating raw meat ours was a bustling civilization and yes we are still the only surviving civilization.

The instability started from the time when religious zealots started to spread religions which were alien to this part of the world violently for their political ends. British has played a significant role in destroying our cultural supremacy systematically with the active help of missionaries, so much so that it had a greater effect than the marauding Islamic invaders. Here is the part of the address by Macaulay to British parliament. in the later part of 19th century, which is just a sample of how strong we were. And this colonizer admits that to make this country a dominated nation, its old and ancient education system must be replaced (or in other words has to be destroyed) with theirs.

Just recording it here to constantly remind ourselves what our roots are.

　

Women's Issues a short Introduction & Conclusion

I was recently helping out my friend in editing a portion of an yet to be published article in a journal which talks about the women's issues related to literacy and economic independence and how they can be asserted judicially. I have just written an introduction and conclusion.

Here is what I have written.

Introduction:

For so long in this country and elsewhere in places where women function in liberal democratic spaces, their battle against stereotypes and discrimination continues. After breaking out of the medieval yoke of "Women are sub-ordinate to Men"   they have come a long way but still this process is a way to go. Significant results are achieved through literacy and economic independence. The other side of argument is through literacy economic independence is achieved and economic independence is sustained by ensuring justice through legal institutions of state. This article ponders over what are the current hurdles for asserting women's equal rights vis-a-vis men's and the legal remedies available to re-establish the their rights. The judiciary being one of an important arm of a modern state must not restrict itself from adjudicating the matters brought before it but also engage in judicial activism, this may be at the risk of being called as Judicial overreach. But that appears to be the only option when things could not be handled constitutionally by the other two arms of the state ie., the executive and legislature. Though this article talks about the legal perspective but without the active support of legislature and executive there will be no salutary effect when it comes to safeguarding women's rights. We could deduce to an extent that literacy and economic independence is achieved but the bench mark should be how much of it we have achieved is indeed a moot question.

Within the context of India, historically women suffered social stigmas through centuries and through activism of few individuals and groups those taboos were either eliminated or reduced to significant levels. But the crux of modern issues with respect to women's rights is more to do with economic independence which is denied to her. And subsequently the role of legislature to empower this oppressed section of our society with a number of statutes which were liberally interpreted by our courts for the benefit of women should also be given due importance.

But if one is forced to think that despite plethora of statutes and other legal remedies why the discrimination is still perpetrated, the answer might be poor implementation of existing legal provisions, women themselves are not aware of their rights and often women lack means to pursue their goal ie., justice.

Conclusion:

After reviewing this article we could say that the legislature, executive and to an extent women themselves have to play an active role in safeguarding their rights. Though in this whole article we have kept ourselves out of sexual harassment issue because that in its own right is a substantial and a separate issue which requires to be dealt with as a distinct malady apart from regular issues of equality, economic independence and others to name a few. Though for the purpose of convenience we could always stratify the issues based on rights affected in work place, family and society etc and address each one of them at a time, issues relating to access to judicial remedies for example must be laid more emphasis and also the role of state to ensure the means and resources available for women which shall help them in asserting their rights. For issues related to workplace independent focus groups shall be formed to address routine work related issues which could also include matters related to compensation, for this ID act 1947 to be amended to distinguish women workers/employees from the general term “workers”. And the management has to be given a separate deadline to address issues related to women employees which shall address concerns in a timely manner. Government must appoint task forces to inspect whether all the provisions of statutes which are meant to take care of women's rights are implemented correctly and the institutions which did not adhere to these shall be made liable for their non-adherence. All women employees must be encouraged to engage in continuing education which shall educate them about their guaranteed legal rights. State must actively involve itself in promoting the awareness of issues relating to women's rights.

My response to Making sense of Sarkozy's veil threat - Old one

My response through email on  Making sense of Sarkozy's veil threat which I have written to Rahman who can be contacted on faizz@rocketmail.com

Hi,rahaman,

I have read your article on making sense on veil in hindu on July 21.To put frankly it is surprising to see moderate Muslims like you.In true sense Muslims are meant to be peaceful as per the Koranic expressions.To conclude on the issue of veil ban,it has been agreed that in open societies like Europe,where people(specifically women) should not be discriminated based on this unusual attire which was asserted by the fundamentalists whose thinking is strictly guided by the medieval terms.When you talked about those elder leaders ignoring issues like polygamy,child marriage and education in the Muslim society (which should be given a top priority) and picking up the trivial issues like this merely for a political reason, would not indeed help to improve the status of women.I recently read an incident which happened in Afghanistan where a women was raped by 10 men and later all were pardoned by the president which is simply ridiculous,and there are many other laws which exist in Afghanistan which are literally anti women. All these notorious guardians of Muslim society(ummah) must work towards upliftment of women.Going by the law of France I think the ethos which emerged out of french revolution are been re-emphasised.Finally as per the world known fact the Koran does not direct a women to wear a niqab.Your explanation was absolutely clear and also this has concurrence of professors in al azhar university Cairo and of course me.

Continue your good work of educating these mindless people who in the name religion suppress women's rights,which goes against Koran.

Thanks 

Egypt, Democracy & Revolution 2.0 or Recall 1.0 ?

By the fall of Morsi can we safely assume that Muslims cannot allow themselves to live in a democracy ? Answer is a overwhelming "Yes".You see that is why dictators go on to rule for decades together often with the false notion of democracy. Islamists (In this case Muslim Brotherhood) who loathed the very idea of democracy had to embrace electoral politics because in Egypt the big daddy is Army whose contemporary in the world is only ISI of Pakistan. But the degree of notoriety of these two groups is markedly different, at least the former appears to be standing by people and does not fund or survives in the industry of terrorism.

Strictly speaking we shall say that few thousand people by creating a commotion on streets deposed a democratically elected leader, Morsi may be ideologically dangerous for many in the world, but that is not the point. How a bunch of thugs can do what they think is right is a moot point. For the present stalemate Muslim Brotherhood is equally responsible. Given the face-lifting it acquired through electoral victory, it immediately started to implement its tyrannical agenda starting from the controversial presidential decrees and reluctance shown in forming the constitution acceptable to all to mention few which culminated in to a recent upsurge - Revolution 2.0 ?

People who learnt and are practicing politics systematically might suggest that if revolutions are too frequent it is no more a revolution but instability which will lead to anarchy. We have seen the sectarian bigotry at display when Sunnis killed and dragged the dead bodies of Shias at the protest site which has got nothing to do with revolution whatsoever. If a country is sliding to anarchy the reason is not only its leader but also people.

What Morsi probably did not know that by taking a hardline stance in some of his policies he was inviting a Recall 1.0 which will target his power with which he planned to perpetrate the Islamic agenda. Of course it appears to have shocked Muslim Brotherhood, and US is helpless whose role is limited to supplying needed aid to military. In the near western hemisphere I thought as an Islamic country, Egypt is going to break all the stereotypes by sustaining its democracy which was in its infancy. But I am proved wrong. For Muslim's to be ruled by a caliphate is some thing they hold dear than democracy.