Why China cannot be India's true friend ?

The recent visit by the Chinese premier Li has raised much debate and a positive out look in his first spell of foreign tour after taking over as a premier of Communist china simply because he chose India as a first stop in his current leg of foreign tour. He himself mentioned in his joint press conference with India's PM that due to the importance he assigned towards India, he chose to anchor first in India, which provided much fodder for Indian Media which has been chewing it for quite some time. And went on further eulogizing hindi - chin bhai bhai stuff.

Let's be more realistic in our expectations with China. Once Li wound up his Photo op in India he landed in a country what is termed as China's Israel ie,. Pakistan where he concluded or signed agreements on which India has serious concerns. Transfer of Gwadar Port to China. Caught between in the so called string of pearl, Golden triangle and Golden crescent, India has many woes ahead to be dealt with. Gandhian assertions by our PM such as " There is enough space for both China and India to grow " has only philosophical appeal and nothing more than that. We shine only when compared to Pakistan which is not a bench mark at all.

Monumental mistake/s committed on dealings with China in early stages of Post-Independence did cost us dear and we could never move past that, legacy of which haunts India until today. It is our failure to give credence to the fact that China can never make love with a democratic India, should not we be seeing it through ? To go by a favorite quote " Show Me Your Company And I’ll Tell You Who You Are " Lets see the bunch of countries which are friends of China. North Korea, Pakistan ? With out trying not to be outlandish, North Korea is considered as a rogue state and Pakistan a failed or terrorist state. The revelation that nearly 80 % of terrorist attacks are hatched in Pakistan is more than an evidence and shows how Pakistan is contributing to World's instability. Now that we know China's company we should be able to tell what China is.

In 21st century, two major threats for the stability of this world is Islamic Terrorism and Communism. Both diagonally opposite with respect to their ideological inclinations but employ similar means to achieve their ends. Pakistan is more than willing to submit to Chinese suzerainty as it thinks that Hindu India is a threat to its existence, with out realizing a fact that under the nose of communism they cannot pray Allah. As a country India which was just relieved through political independence from 1000 year old colonial yoke (Islamic & British rule included) it always took a stand making sure it does not anger any bloc in the cold war era and any other bloc in the current era. So there was this Panhsheel and NAM (Non-Aligned Movement) distortion which still remains to be a stumbling block.

For China and Pakistan they are very clear on their goals ie., not to provide any avenues for Indian dominance with in Asia in particular and in world in general. India has always been sensitive towards China's concerns let it be Tibet or Taiwan etc., but there was never an element of reciprocity in Chinese approach towards India. Hundreds of Chinese Military incursions every year in to Indian Territory is a case in point. But India never indulged in such a behavior either with Pakistan or China. The ruling politicians call it as Soft Power but I would call it incapability.

Barring aside the requirement to attain a greater economic supremacy Vis-a-Vis China it is important to maintain the balance of Power in Asia by beefing up India's defense and intelligence capabilities which is a way to go for her. If it is not due to the out right rejection of Capitalism but it is definitely due to her love for Socialism/Marxism made India a loser. With Communists/Marxists/Maoists deeply penetrated in India media which wields an enormous power in guiding public opinion, the state of India and its future is in cross roads.

In the emerging Bi-polar reality Russia (or USSR) is already knocked out of the game whose economic supremacy is greatly dwindled but technological supremacy with respect to defense industry still remains to an extent, and the new comer to take erstwhile USSR's position is undoubtedly China and the defending champion is USA. Just like in the cold war era India in its attempt to take a middle course reached no where, now it is in the dilemma of emerging US - China bipolarity, as in what stand it should take. The Internal & Economic security is so fragile that it cannot take an independent stand. Though we have talked about "Look East" it seems we have never looked east. In east it is Japan and in West it is USA are our only allies to counter new axis of evil which is Pakistan-China in the context of Asia if not on a global scale.

And China knows very clearly that the way to drag this world in to Communism abyss is only through military supremacy and in that quest it diverted its full efforts to steal defense secrets through its army of hackers and cyber spies and reverse engineering which makes Communists an Immoral bunch.

If recent Rand Corporation's report was correct about the feasibility of setting up a Drone base in Andaman Nicobar Islands for an eventual Offensive against China, India should go for it. It is an open secret that China cannot have democratic friends. If it says that India is one, then it is merely a public posture. Siding with USA in west and Japan in east is the only way to check Chinese arrogance in greater Asia.

IPL: Big Money, Fraud &Immorality

I have always been skeptical about the whole idea of spending time in watching IPL in particular and cricket in general. This attitude has crept in to me since I have seen my favorite players like A.Jadeja and Azharuddin whose credibility came in to totters. I cannot describe how die hard a fan I was during 1996 World Cup.

But since then when I have come to know that results of any game can be pre-decided to benefit few gamblers through agents and players can be bought for money, I have decided for good to throw the idea to watch cricket for leisure and passion in to dustbin and have never gone back to that and as an exception would watch only India-Pakistan matches, let it be T-20, ODI or any other form. Because I know for sure that those India-Pakistan matches are like war in battle ground and actual wars are like cricket matches, we can quote 1947 war for an example, where Nehru unilaterally called for with drawl of Indian forces. The rest is history.

When the Idea of cricket league was coined and developed arguably in the lines of Football premier leagues of Europe by Kapil Dev, we have seen how big money sharks pounced up on by eventually dumping him and also his idea just to re-invent it in a different name as Indian Premier League. It has to be premier for many reasons starting from the magnitude of money influx in this business and continuing ED enquires on few/many owners of franchises, not to mention the remuneration paid to players.

BCCI chided cricket league coiners that the whole idea was just a business venture and there is no intention to develop cricket at that time when Kapil talked about ICL. The question to be asked to all those croaky politicians & corporate honchos, the kind of money they have earned till now through illegal means is not enough? For whom they continue to earn? What a breed of immoral bunch are they? When IPL was organized in South Africa, as a token of Corporate Social Responsibility villages were adopted. But in India they adopted the idea of not to adopt anything except money?

Though there were rumors for a long time that spot fixing is a reality in IPL every one (decision makers) chose to ignore?

The most disturbing fact how cricketing passion of a country as big as India is manipulated? And how these bunch of political and corporate criminals thrive. I refuse to accept the fact that those were arrested, around more than 10 people including 3 players of Rajasthan Royals franchise are the only those who committed crime because as they are allegedly small fish. It could be beyond underworld/terrorist connection, and political – business nexus must be unearthed.

I feel vindicated of my decision not to watch IPL in particular and other matches in general, barring India-Pakistan matches.

My Comment on Jay's Post - How Big Data could impact Social Science Research ?

My Comment on Jay's Post on how Big Data could impact Social Science


The West's indulgence with quantitativeness has to an extent brought to fore the most exemplary outputs in the landscape of empirical research. But at the same time every thing in this world cannot be predicted with 100% accuracy through complex data & Mathematical models. And a philosiphical basing of social scientists comes in handy to predict things out of their gut feeling.

But the fact is that none of these two extremes could  give us what we need, ie., forecasting an imminent danger (a political event) for an example. Recently I have read an introductory book "Understanding Big Data" to try and understand what it actually means? To my surprise the Pioneer - IBM tacitly concludes that it is only the prudent application of Big Data Platform which may bring in new business insights not otherwise. So Big Data is going to be here for some time and might produce great results for business organizations to an extent through its valuble insights which otherwise may not be possible. But to say that it is going to be the panacea to all the problems which are encountered while forecasting/predicting political events or any other governmental business may not be a realistic assertion. So overall I agree with your outlook and the middle grounnd you have embraced.

I must say that your work on forecasting political coups is truly Seminal. I am yet to complete the reading in full.
Thanks

Sathya
Blog : paytriat.blogspot.in

My comment on Matt Dickenson's Post

My comment on Matt Dickenson's Post - Graduate student of Politics in Duke University

But then that is how Americans are grown up as they have never heard bombs blowing up in their back yards. And their reaction in this case is apparently justified. Contrast it with the situation in South Asia, on a frequent basis hundreds of innocents are targeted and killed in the name of ethnic cleansing (Hazara shias, ahemadias, Hindus) by the taliban in Pakistan. So if terrorists choose to hijack few planes and attack few high rises in pakistan? The aftermath reaction of pakistanis will be certainly different from Americans, and they will carry on with their lives as they happen every day and they are so used to that.

Though India has been a victim of terrorism exported by Pakistan.. In the aftermath of all such ghastardly acts there was no psychological imbalance at all. By engaging in the normal course of business Indians want to send a message to the coward terrorists and jehadis and also to their backers that "look we are least afraid of your acts".  And that is how the psyche has evolved over the years.

To expect Americans to maintain the poise after such an attack of such magnitude is not fair. May be they should get used to it. But asking them to get used to is again not fair.

Musharaff : General Prisoner

Once a strong man in Pakistan now a prisoner. Former Army General Musharraf recently was touted as a messiah of Pakistan now languishes in jail. Can you imagine this? Yes it happens in Pakistan and may be in few African and South American countries too. I.e., all the former generals ending up in Jail.

It is the unsatiating lust for power which drives Army Generals such as him crazy. Like many other former rulers of Pakistan he too pursued his dream of consolidating his power by appealing to religion, anti-India posture etc., But he had too much in his plate. The Baloch Freedom fighters would not budge, not to mention the Frankenstein Monster – Taliban.

His case is a classic example to prove that it is impossible to govern men without their consent. He never had any public support. When pushed to corner he too just like many of his predecessors suspended constitution and declared emergency. That is not something new to this country, which is a breeding ground for terrorists.

In the recent debacle when he ventured in to Pakistan after a long exile, he was justly prosecuted, by that judiciary’s vengeance is served. Once fought enemies from bunkers, now searching them to hide his head. Facing the onslaught of judicial terrorism. And it is a payback time.

The blunders he made could be Blackening the judiciary and Kargil. Both had given a deadly blow to his fortunes and stature as a leader. He is just an example of why Army leaders cannot play the role of a democratic leader. May be if kayani thinks about ruling Pakistan through civilian garb, he better think again. It is good not to shun the uniform even for laundry.

A seasoned observer like me might shout shame! Shame!

Congress, CBI and Scams

While debate about CBI’s independence has come to fore again in the context of alleged massive coal scam’s investigation, there are other pressing questions pertaining to integrity and honesty of this premier institution and also Government of India which needs answers. It is not reasonable to find an equivalent for every issue with previous governments. For all recently unearthed scams Congress/Government maintained that it merely continued previous government’s policies or it did with the concurrence of state governments, the ones we are talking about is 2G Scam, Chopper deal and Coalgate scam.

In a country where political & bureaucratic corruption is rampant, CBI understandably is a last straw of hope to uphold the very notion of Justice. At least from the time we know about 2G scam, strategy of the government seems to have been to first deny any wrong doing, then become silent and make the whole issue disappear in the name of an enquiry. We can recall how in 2G scam Kapil Sibal propounded a baseless zero loss theory to see himself that around 122 2G licenses were cancelled and court ordered for re-auction. The moment they realized that re-auction did not generate the revenues of what has been claimed by CAG report on 2G allocation, congress spokespersons wasted no time to drumbeat that whole loss figure arrived in CAG report is mythical. Failing to realize that Indian citizens are now a days have become more proactive and their common sense and IQ levels have been improved much when compared to as citizens of British India or of 1947. The whole loss was specific to a particular time only. At a time when we have already immersed ourselves in 3G and are marching towards embracing 4G technology, what revenue a 2G re-auction would generate?

In my opinion the counsels must have argued for a different deal instead of a simple re-auctioning, ie., in future generation technology auctions (3G,4G) etc., those who have bought 2G spectrum in throw away prices must pay more than the new entrants and that amount must make up to the lost revenue. Because this is a peculiar case and you cannot just makeup for the losses by re-auction because it (the technology) is outdated already. And allegedly there has been an attempt by vested interests to weaken the whole investigation. Truth must prevail.

But in case of Coal scam there is a possibility to make up for revenue losses highlighted in CAG report probably through re-auction unlike 2G spectrum. Because coal is a coal, a natural resource. Congress to get rid of pressure it is facing tried to pass the buck to BJP claiming that it was states that approved or concurred with giving licenses to respective players. But people of India are not witless mortals to accept that untenable argument. Because state government’s view is only ‘Recommendatory’ in nature and are not binding on Government of India and that is why we have a central government department called as Coal Ministry. Even if for the sake of argument let’s assume that a state government has recommended an undeserving player to be allocated a coal block, is it not the responsibility of the Coal Ministry (GOI) to detect that player or company in question and say that he is not suitable for allocation and henceforth reject it? So arguing that all is done at the behest of state governments is not an alibi at all, and will collapse like a house of cards in a legal scrutiny. To be on a safer side to project that current government is not the only one to be called in for shots it released a report rubber stamping it by a parliament standing committee, which says that all allocations from 1993 to 2008 needs to be reviewed, exactly as in 2G Scam it said that it just followed previous government’s policy.

It is only after an enormous opposition pressure GOI gone in for a CBI enquiry. It has to be noted that this time around BJP did not insist on JPC because it has learnt its lessons through the JPC formed on 2G Scam and insisted on independent enquiry. Now the only way the government can manipulate truth is through coercing CBI.

A layman would understand that CBI is a part of the government; we never needed a lesson from either the current CBI Director Ranjit Sinha or from Government of India. Are we to assume that the current CBI director has a plump post like governor of a state is waiting for his retirement life as a quid pro quo to his loyalty to congress? It is an open truth that CBI has a functional autonomy (at least that is the statutory intention). It is only administrative control which government holds something like approving leaves and allowances? But it can never and it should never interfere with the ongoing cases which CBI is investigating. After the appointment of former CBI director Ashwini Kumar as Governor of Nagaland, it makes one to think how effectively CBI has been utilized? Should we call it as classical utilitarianism? Jeremy Bentham would be appalled. If CBI’s Motto is Industry, Impartiality, Integrity it must seem to be. But you will not get that feeling if you read this report

The recent incident which came to light where Government intervening in CBI’s investigation by trying to tweak a status report which CBI has to submit to the court is a telling example of how notorious the government is in saving its face from the onslaught of scam revelations. And it is both shocking and laughable to listen to government’s defense that law ministry intended to correct grammatical mistakes in CBI’s report. Who will accept such a callous argument? It is quite natural that Justice Jodha frowned up on the government counsel, see his comments.

When the whole investigation is to find out whether government of the day is involved in any wrong doing and investigation is under the nose of highest court, how can the accused verify a report before it is submitted to court which could possibly implicate him? How can the government be a judge in its own cause, there by violating fundamental principles of natural justice and moral sanity? As leader of opposition, Rajya Sabha claimed that the “government is caught when its pants are down” that is indeed true. Unless arrogance of the two power centers- congress president and prime minister is so hardened, it is time for the head of government to dissolve the parliament and go for elections or just resign, only and only if he has any semblance of morality left in him.